December 15, 1999

The JCPA convened a conference call yesterday, moderated by agency chair Steve Schwarz, to address the renewal of Israeli-Syrian negotiations this week in Washington. Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, provided a brief analysis and took questions from the participants.

According to Satloff, last week’s announcement about restarting the talks, which came as a surprise, "reflects Syrian President Assad’s decision that it is better for him to be inside the process than on the sidelines." This development was made possible, he said, when Assad dropped his demand that Israel commit in advance to withdrawal from all of the Golan Heights. The parties now have agreed, he asserted, to start negotiating "where they left off." It is generally understood, he stated, that Israel is prepared to meet Assad’s territorial demands. There will be discussion, he pointed out, about whether Israel should return to the international armistice line of 1923 or the border as of June 4, 1967. "But we’re not talking about a significant amount of land." The central issue, he maintained, "is the price Syria will be ready to pay."

With respect to security arrangements, Satloff explained, Israel will press for "as much demilitarization, force limitation, restructuring of the Syrian military and monitoring as possible." A key issue is what Israel will receive to compensate for the loss of an exclusively "Israel-manned monitoring station on Mount Hermon." The U.S. will be asked to provide monitors, surveillance information, aircraft, access to satellites, etc. "The U.S. is an important bridge between the two sides in the security area," he noted.

On normalization of ties, Satloff said, "there is less that the U.S. can do here." "It is really up to the parties themselves." Syria wants a "Camp David minus" peace, while the Israelis would prefer something warmer, at least "Camp David plus." In the end, he told the participants, "the peace with Syria will probably look much like the peace with Egypt." "Most Israelis don’t want to pay the territorial price for a marginal improvement in their security situation," he asserted. "They want substantial improvement." This means that a regional component must be built into the process, he observed. "Syria must lift the veto and encourage other Arab states to come to the table as well." Israelis must be persuaded that this will "end the conflict." It is critical that Syria demonstrates its good intentions, he stressed, by restraining Hezbollah. "The border with Lebanon must be kept quiet during the course of the negotiations."

Satloff reminded the participants that this week’s meeting between Foreign Minister al-Sharaa and Prime Minister Barak represents just the opening of talks. "We should be positive and hopeful, but not too expectant…. Assad will not make any final decisions until he sees all aspects of the deal, including what the U.S. will put on the table." He concluded his opening remarks by asserting that "there is now an unprecedented opportunity to make peace." The key issue, he said, "is not the parties’ desire to make peace, but rather what price Assad is willing to pay for it? This is what will be fleshed out in the coming months."

In terms of the succession issue, Satloff said, there are two schools of thought. "Some believe that Assad wants to deal now in order to be able to give his son a clean slate when he takes over." However, "just as compelling a case can be made the other way, that he doesn’t want to saddle his son with an agreement, which makes his regime appear weak." Satloff expressed the view that Syria may want to reach an agreement now, not due to the succession issue, but because of Barak and Clinton. "One of the benefits of dealing with a lame duck president," Satloff said, "is that Clinton can make promises that will have to be fulfilled by the next administration and Congress."

Satloff said he did not believe Syria would agree to an arrangement similar to that reached with Jordan, whereby Israeli residents on the Golan would be allowed to remain as lessees. "Syria will insist that all Israelis vacate the area, as they did in the Sinai, and I anticipate an approximately 3-year timetable for implementation." As far as the Druse community is concerned, "the desire of many to remain in Israel is natural. An increasing number of Druse from the Golan have obtained Israeli citizenship and a significant number may want to live in Israel."

In terms of the impact of the "Knesset’s tepid endorsement" of the negotiations, Satloff argued that, in fact, "the vote could help Barak in the negotiations by showing the Syrians that he has to persuade the Israeli people to accept the deal." The Knesset, he asserted, "will not be the real battlefield, but the referendum will be hard fought." Israeli public opinion, he noted, remains "extremely volatile."